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Post by bonehead on Oct 14, 2022 22:25:33 GMT -6
Class 2 district 3 is going to be interesting to see how it shakes out.
Liberty is the clear front runner and should be the 1 seed.
Then you have a crazy mix of teams who are really close who have some head to head wins and losses and I believe they still have the rule if you are one place behind a team that you beat head to head then you get to jump them in standings.
Houston lost to Grove but beat Ava
Ava lost to Houston but beat Grove.
Grove lost to Ava but beat Houston
Strafford beat Ava
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Post by mghs on Oct 14, 2022 22:52:51 GMT -6
That rule is applicable top down. Take MV out of the equation they are 1. So after the points are added up and 2-3 are figured if 3 best 2 then they jump them. The 4th team wouldn’t factor in to that equation all though 5 could jump 4 and so forth if head to head was a factor.
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Post by bonehead on Oct 14, 2022 22:56:51 GMT -6
So it would appear that this might be the final result after next week
1. Liberty 2. Grove 3. Houston 4. Strafford 5. Ava 6. Willow 7. Doniphan
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BearUp
Active Member
Posts: 504
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Post by BearUp on Oct 18, 2022 10:49:56 GMT -6
If Houston gets blown out by Liberty how many district points do we expect them to fall by? With Houston at 43.43, Grove at 40.07 and Ava at 39.26 do we expect them to drop below Ava in points? I assume Grove and Ava will both win pretty big. If Houston drops below Ava then I’d assume Ava would be the 2 seed with their win over Grove, Grove the 3 seed and Houston the 4 seed? This is all assuming Houston gets turbo clocked and Ava and Grove win big.
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Post by jordanearl on Oct 18, 2022 12:16:52 GMT -6
If Houston gets blown out by Liberty how many district points do we expect them to fall by? With Houston at 43.43, Grove at 40.07 and Ava at 39.26 do we expect them to drop below Ava in points? I assume Grove and Ava will both win pretty big. If Houston drops below Ava then I’d assume Ava would be the 2 seed with their win over Grove, Grove the 3 seed and Houston the 4 seed? This is all assuming Houston gets turbo clocked and Ava and Grove win big. im not sure assuming Ava is gonna win big is a given. Willow just give Houston all it wanted and you guys lost to them. and Grove beat both Houston and willow pretty handily. But if your theory is correct its gonna be really close for all 3 teams.
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Post by bonehead on Oct 18, 2022 14:35:56 GMT -6
If Houston gets blown out by Liberty how many district points do we expect them to fall by? With Houston at 43.43, Grove at 40.07 and Ava at 39.26 do we expect them to drop below Ava in points? I assume Grove and Ava will both win pretty big. If Houston drops below Ava then I’d assume Ava would be the 2 seed with their win over Grove, Grove the 3 seed and Houston the 4 seed? This is all assuming Houston gets turbo clocked and Ava and Grove win big. Not sure. Anyone know how much the points changed after this past week with Houston losing and Grove and Liberty winning big?
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BearUp
Active Member
Posts: 504
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Post by BearUp on Oct 18, 2022 21:35:39 GMT -6
If Houston gets blown out by Liberty how many district points do we expect them to fall by? With Houston at 43.43, Grove at 40.07 and Ava at 39.26 do we expect them to drop below Ava in points? I assume Grove and Ava will both win pretty big. If Houston drops below Ava then I’d assume Ava would be the 2 seed with their win over Grove, Grove the 3 seed and Houston the 4 seed? This is all assuming Houston gets turbo clocked and Ava and Grove win big. im not sure assuming Ava is gonna win big is a given. Willow just give Houston all it wanted and you guys lost to them. and Grove beat both Houston and willow pretty handily. But if your theory is correct its gonna be really close for all 3 teams. I know nothing is a given but just trying to get a feel for how much we could expect to see the district points change this week.
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Post by mghs on Oct 18, 2022 22:21:13 GMT -6
If Houston gets blown out by Liberty how many district points do we expect them to fall by? With Houston at 43.43, Grove at 40.07 and Ava at 39.26 do we expect them to drop below Ava in points? I assume Grove and Ava will both win pretty big. If Houston drops below Ava then I’d assume Ava would be the 2 seed with their win over Grove, Grove the 3 seed and Houston the 4 seed? This is all assuming Houston gets turbo clocked and Ava and Grove win big. Overcoming 4 pts for Ava is a tough task IMO the strength of schedule will pretty much be a wash as well as the plus and minus 13 pts, if Houston loses to MV by 13pts, Grove and Ava each win by 13pts the odds are that Houston won't fall that far down the ladder. Winning by 14 points or a 100 points doesn't help the cause as losing by 14pts or a 100pts doesn't hurt it either. Teams get 20 pts for win/10pts for loss/15pts for OT loss/ ADD up points and divide by number of games played 10 points for each game and class you play up. EX. C1 playing C3 team get's 20 pts add up points divide by games played (no deduction for playing down) Now comes the Math Whiz parts....at least for us with Wright Co. educations... Points for Strength of Schedule..... Points from opponents schedule by taking the sum of W/L record from each team you have played times the points for the Wins and Losses, 10,20 minus your contribution to the opponents record, divided by the total number of games played minus the number of games you played. Then Factor in the Plus/Minus 13pts You will calculate the point differential for each game played not to exceed the +/- 13. You will add the total points together and divide by games played. Then add all the categories together to determine points and seed. AutoSwitch....Two Consecutive seeds If two teams have played head to head and their seeds are consecutive they will be switched if the lower seed has beaten higher seed EX. #2 beats #1 they will be switched. Once a switch has happened that team is protected from being switched again. EX. For example the number #1 Seed cannot be switched with the #3 seed in the example above. This process will start with the higher seed and work its way down the seedings. So just looking at this and not doing the calculated math in all the categories(SOS) which should not change much it appears that if MV/AVA/Grove win by 13+ and a Houston -13 loss well that won't be enough to drop them below Ava with a big 4pt lead already, Houston SOS is not going to go down by playing MV it will go up do to MV being undefeated, Ava will not gain much if any by playing WS SOS wise and neither will the Grove playing Thayer, Houston will still retain the C3 bump that helped them get the 4 pt cushion by playing Orchard Farm same as Ava for Buffalo, so basically the thing will be decided by the +/- 13 pts. So if you had up the plus and minus for both teams Ava comes out with 52 points divided by 9 and you get 5.7 points....Houston has 51 points divided by nine and that is 5.6 points.....Grove if they win by 13pts will end up with 65 pts divided by 9 which is 7.2 pts. Houston will have barring a miracle vs MV have 17.7 points in the Points for wins and playing up a class category, Grove will Also have 17.7 points and Ava will gain a bit with 18.8....but again I don't see that overcoming Houston's already massive 4 pt lead over Ava and Houston might well end up ahead of Grove on points as well but then Get Jumped because of the Loss last Friday at 1pm. It appears that Grove will end up 2nd, Houston 3rd and Ava 4th. Now of course I could of totally messed this up cause you do add all the points from the 4 categories and I'm not factoring the SOS, but looking at those Categories nobody is playing up a Class and playing down doesn't effect the point total this week, the SOS shouldn't change by a huge degree since the 3 top seeds are playing teams that everyone has played that movement IMO should be minimal, and I think I figured the Plus and Minus 13 points correctly which is minimal distance between Ava/Houston and bit of a boom for Grove and then the Points for W/L and Playing up a class with 17.7/17.7/18.8 being also rather small with no significant gains or losses. Of course if someone out there has more math Chops than me and that wouldn't take much feel free to point out my errors and fix this and figure it out. I was just spit balling and looking at the whole thing. Maybe SOS will be bigger than I think? But with the +/- points coming between Ava and Houston being .6 and the W/L being 1.1 total it doesn't appear that AVA can jump Houston Point wise. 1.7 doesn't move the needle enough. And Grove should move up as well point wise but again I'm not sure we can pass Houston except with the Head to Head win if we do then Ava can't Jump Houston because of Head to Head. I really think as I said it's MV/GROVE/Houston/AVA...... the Loss to Strafford and Houston is a killer for Ava seeding wise it appears. It really appears that it will Be Grove vs the Don's, Houston Vs Willow, and Ava vs Strafford in a Rematch..
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Post by mosooner on Oct 19, 2022 8:53:25 GMT -6
When you look at the overall strength of schedule Ava gets the most points because of playing Buffalo and Strafford out of conference. and Houston's opponents are one game better than Groves. Since you are just looking at gaining points... we only have to look at this week. Houston will get the biggest jump as they are playing an 8-0 team while while Grove and Ava are playing teams with losing records. Not sure there will be a ton of movement from the current positions. when its said and done and the auto jumps have taken place... I think we will see: Liberty BYE, Doniphan at Grove, Willow at Houston, and Ava at Strafford. But a Houston upset would totally change everything
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Post by jordanearl on Oct 19, 2022 9:27:44 GMT -6
When you look at the overall strength of schedule Ava gets the most points because of playing Buffalo and Strafford out of conference. and Houston's opponents are one game better than Groves. Since you are just looking at gaining points... we only have to look at this week. Houston will get the biggest jump as they are playing an 8-0 team while while Grove and Ava are playing teams with losing records. Not sure there will be a ton of movement from the current positions. when its said and done and the auto jumps have taken place... I think we will see: Liberty BYE, Doniphan at Grove, Willow at Houston, and Ava at Strafford. But a Houston upset would totally change everything yep, A Houston upset would take grove from 2 to 4
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Post by bonehead on Oct 19, 2022 9:44:27 GMT -6
Looks like the OZONE agrees with Mosooner and others.... here is what they have on their article
Class 2 District 3
Place School Points after Wk 6 Points after Wk 7 Points after Wk 8
1 Liberty 49.07 48.13 48.76
2 Houston 48.61 47.76 43.43
3 Mountain Grove 36 38.19 40.07
4 Ava 37.17 38.63 39.26
5 Strafford 34.67 32 34.22
6 Willow Springs 32.18 31.2 29.87
7 Doniphan 16.33 15.22 14.23
WEEK 9 SCHEDULE
No. 1 Liberty (8-0) vs. Houston (7-1)
No. 2 Houston (7-1) vs. Liberty (8-0)
No. 3 Mountain Grove (6-2) vs. Thayer (3-4)
No. 4 Ava (5-3) vs. Willow Springs (3-5)
No. 5 Strafford (4-4) vs. Skyline (2-6)
No. 6 Willow Springs (3-5) vs. Ava (5-3)
No. 7 Doniphan (0-8) vs. Scott City (7-1)
HEAD-TO-HEAD
No. 1 Liberty – Beat Mountain Grove, Ava, Willow Springs, Strafford; Week 9 vs. Houston
No. 2 Houston – Beat Ava, Willow Springs; Lost to Mountain Grove; Week 9 vs. Liberty
No. 3 Mountain Grove – Beat Houston, Willow Springs; Lost to Ava, Liberty
No. 4 Ava – Beat Mountain Grove; Lost to Houston, Liberty, Strafford; Week 9 vs. Willow Springs
No. 5 Strafford – Beat Ava, Lost to Liberty
No. 6 Willow Springs – Lost to Mountain Grove, Liberty, Houston; Week 9 vs. Ava
No. 7 Doniphan – NONE
OUR TAKE: Houston hosts Liberty this week with the winner claiming the No. 1 seed in the district and the Week 10 bye that goes with it.
There is a lot that could happen here.
If Liberty beats Houston and Mountain Grove beats Thayer, Houston will slip to No. 3 due to the head-to-head loss to Mountain Grove pushing the Panthers to No. 2. Strafford would jump Ava for the No. 4 seed and would host Ava in the district quarterfinals.
If Houston beats Liberty, Houston would be No. 1 and Liberty would be No. 2. Ava would jump over Mountain Grove for the No. 3 spot with Mountain Grove going to No. 4 regardless of results on Friday for Ava and Mountain Grove due to Ava’s regular season win.
A Mountain Grove loss and Ava win should be enough to push Ava past Mountain Grove to No. 3, which would keep Houston at No. 2 with a loss to Liberty and keep Strafford at No. 5.
The biggest game in this district is the Liberty-Houston showdown. Everything starts there. The results of the Mountain Grove and Ava games will decide Nos. 2-5 should Houston lose to Liberty.
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Post by jordanearl on Oct 19, 2022 12:25:48 GMT -6
Looks like the OZONE agrees with Mosooner and others.... here is what they have on their article The biggest game in this district is the Liberty-Houston showdown. Everything starts there. The results of the Mountain Grove and Ava games will decide Nos. 2-5 should Houston lose to Liberty. Im hearing a lot of Ifs and Butts, But I dont see any way Houston upsets Liberty. Houston had virtually no pass defense. So even if Houston completely shut down Liberty run game. I dont see them holding them down enough to outscore. I was surprised at what little fight Houston put up last week
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Post by mghs on Oct 19, 2022 22:25:40 GMT -6
Yes I laughed out loud every time I read Houston beating MV....I give that a less than 2% chance of happening. I'd say without a doubt Thayer has a lot better chance of beating Grove probably 30% chance with them getting healthy and being able to grind the ball on the ground in the Veer than Houston has to beat MV. And even WS has a better chance of Beating AVA as well about a 5% chance than Houston upsetting MV..
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BearUp
Active Member
Posts: 504
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Post by BearUp on Oct 21, 2022 22:25:41 GMT -6
It looks like this will be the final standings 1. Liberty 2. Grove 3. Houston 4. Strafford 5. Ava 6. Willow 7. Doniphan
Doniphan will travel to Grove Willow to Houston Ava to Strafford
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Post by bonehead on Oct 21, 2022 22:30:08 GMT -6
Grove is the winner of this outcome. They get a cake walk to the district championship.
Ava is a top 3 team and should be facing Grove in the 2nd round, losing to Houston really killed them.
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